India In A Position To Take Back PoK And Chinese Occupied Aksai Chin

From 1947 onwards, Prime Minister Jawaharlal Nehru was his own foreign policy maker and in the process decimated the institutionalized process which should have got firmly established in the Foreign Ministry. Similarly he started taking military advice from a civilian Policeman who was heading the Premier Intelligence Agency the IB. It was a double blunder, since it is the General Staff which should use the intelligence inputs to fine tune their operational plans and not the Intelligence Agency making the military Operational plans with inputs from the General Staff.

So initially, Nehru liked to hear only what he liked and soon enough, he began to be told only what he liked, with the unpalatable reality being swept under the carpet. Thus India becoming the leader of the non-aligned movement was regarded by Nehru as a historic achievement. However all activities and signals from China were overlooked. The military strategies of Nehru formulated on advice of B N Mullick was that on the border China will refrain from anything other than some minor incursions by the PLA. Prime Minister Nehru and Defence Minister Krishna Menon not only took that assumption as the Gospel Truth but even pressurized the Army to make both Operational level and Tactical level plans based on this assumption. Only way out would have been either both the COAS and the Chief of General Staff resigning or the PM and RM. Neither happened before the 1962 war. Only after the war the COAS and the CGS along with the RM were made to leave.

When Marshal Lin Biao Forces got the nod from Chairman Mao to cross the Indo Tibetan border( Chinese had crossed the China Tibet Border in 1949 itself), none of the “non-aligned” country came out in support of India and against China during the conflict. Not even countries like Yugoslavia and Egypt both heavily courted by Nehru.

As for the US and the USSR, they were both were locked in an eye ball to eye ball confrontation commonly known as Cuban missile crisis and thus had no time for India.

Prior to 1962, key policymakers headed by Nehru not only failed to understand what was happening in China since 1949 and in Tibet from 1959 after the escape of the Dalai Lama to India. All Chinese commentary on the world’s most populous democracy from the world’s most populous dictatorship state were simply ignored. No action was taken to strengthen the Armed Forces even from 1959 onwards. The three years would have made a huge of a difference, as seen in 1965.

Coming to the present, Xi Jinping took over as the Chinese Communist Party General Secretary in 2012. He was already the President and soon took over as the Chairman of the Central Military Commission. Therefore It is not possible to believe that the movement of PLA forces into Ladakh that began on 4-5 May took place without the consent of the Central Military Commission, the unchallenged head of which is President of China / Chairman CPC /Commander in Chief PLA Shri Xi.

The move was certainly part of a strategy to gain territory in Ladakh and teach a lesson to India for its action against OBOR initiative, thwarting PLA in Doklam, evicting the Chinese from Maldives, reducing the Chinese influence in Sri Lanka, temerity of making Ladakh an UT and naming a part of it as Chinese Occupied Ladakh.

Next year is the centenary of the founding of the Chinese Communist Party, and a military victory is certainly needed to immortalize the “ greatest “ leader after Mao. Beijing intends to take control of the entirety of the Himalayas, the South China Sea and Taiwan.

However unlike 1962, New Delhi is now a changed Himalaya. On 13 May, PLA thought that Galwan Valley was already theirs, but soon the PLA got the shock of its life which went right upwards from formation HQ in Occupied Ladakh to HQ Western Command Theatre at Chengdu in occupied Tibet to PLA HQ in Beijing.

Subsequently, multiple talks/ meetings including at the level of the Special Representatives of the two countries, and between the two Foreign Ministers and even the two Raksha Mantris have taken place. It seems to have been assumed by the Chinese policymakers that such meetings concerning the LAC will continue while on all other fronts that is Economic, Diplomatic, Cultural and Social, there would business as usual.

To their surprise, the Chinese have received another Shock … India is firmly taking actions to ensure that now onwards there will be no business as usual. India has already decisively commenced economic and cultural decoupling from China in a phased manner, no matter the consequences. Also PLA has been shown that now India is not only capable of defending itself but also of taking the battle into Tibet for its liberation.

India has also given enough indications that in case of war, Chinese shipping….economic jugular vein… passing through Indian Ocean Region will just be cut off. Also India is willing to take the sea battle into South China sea, alone or with help of other friends like Vietnam, Indonesia and the Philippines and Japan. USA and Australia would be welcome too.

In 1971, Prime Minister Indira Gandhi had gone ahead with D.P. Dhar’s suggestion and signed a pact with USSR which definitely helped us to stave off not only the pressure from USA and Western Countries but also from China.After all India was a non nuclear power.

Today Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his team have studied the history of the 1962 and 1971 conflicts in detail. Beijing will be foolish to look forward to a repeat of 1962. Instead, what they may be served is a repeat of 1971. This time with the Line of Actual Control getting extended from LAC towards the Indo Tibetan Border and the area of POK getting reduced drastically if not eliminated fully.

The Natuna sea or what the Chinese like to call as South China Seas has navies of many countries, including India, and so the Chinese junks are likely to go down swiftly in case things turn nasty.

President Tsai Ing-wen of Taiwan has already linked her country to the US defence supply chain. Over the past four years, ties between Taipei and Washington have grown closer than at any time since President Richard M. Nixon’s idiotic moves. Soon Taipei may enter into a formal security alliance with the US in the manner of Seoul and Tokyo.

However unlike 1962 when Nehru had frantically sent messages to USA for help, today in 2020 it is USA which is eagerly waiting for India to take the lead of an alliance called the Quadrilateral Alliance. USA wants to form a security alliance of USA, Japan and Australia with India.

However India, in the absence of a clear Terms of Reference between India and the US about mutual understanding based on equality, is not eager to form any security alliance.

India a nuclear power now, is capable of hitting any part of the World, in case push comes to shove. Also on ground the Indian Army can outsmart PLA, as already shown over Moldo Valley.The Himalayan massif seems to be offering a higher chance to PLA this time to lose not only Tibet but also Xinjiang. An attempted blockade of Taiwan by PLAN may even result in losing control of South China Sea too.

Yes, the Indian Armed Forces can certainly do with a quick supply of another 09 × C17 and 12x C130 Hercules, 12x Chinooks and 12x P8Is from USA on longer term payment basis to completely outmaneuver the PLA but we are not desperate. Though the above will certainly help pushing the Line of Actual Control substantially outwards from the Indian side. This would result in a humiliation for the PLA that would have significant consequences on the prestige and credibility of the CCP.

Also USA should know that this time, if by Chance India has a bit of a initial set back at the hands of the PLA, then it is the USA which will be worst sufferer.