Indo-Pak relations: Pakistan Army’s desperate attempts to recalibrate narrative in J&K

The past year (2019) was a defining moment from Pakistan’s viewpoint. The terror attack on a convoy of Indian paramilitary outfit CRPF claimed by Jaesh e Mohammad based in Pakistan was to change the broad perception as to how the Indian establishment would deal with continued attacks on its entities that had gone on for close to three decades without any punitive action on the main perpetrators, the Pakistani state machinery. Pakistan having built a narrative of the situation in J & K as being ‘indigenous’ continues to actively nurture numerous terrorist outfits to foment trouble in J&K and other parts of India with a conviction of inability of the Indian state to respond to its mischiefs, having built an impression to the global community that any Indian action would invite a riposte with an aura of invincibility built around its possession of nuclear weapons and the conflict turning into a ‘nuclear flashpoint’ The Pakistani comfort zone was deflated when India successfully launched air attacks against terror camps inside Pakistan to send across a message that there was no more a ‘status quo’ and India would respond to any future misadventures with punitive actions. Global community, as usual, worried about the escalation asked for restraint. An Indian diplomatic offensive launched to draw attention to Pakistan’s misadventures succeeded in sending across a message to the global community of its complacency with the USA defining Indian action as a “counter-terrorism measures undertaken by New Delhi”. In August 2019, Indian actions to annul Article 370 and 35 A of the Indian Constitution in J&K took Pakistan by surprising leaving it confused to come up with any coherent response. It did retch up a global offensive to criticise Indian actions,but with little success. The follow up actions by the Indian government did improve the state of affairs in J&K with insurgency-related activities showing a discernable downward trend. Comparative data and situation on the ground did point to an improvement in the overall situation in the union territory. On the contrary, the situation in Pakistan turned extremely grim for Pakistan’s Prime Minister Imran Khan. With corruption charges relating to food supply involving members of his government and inability of the government to control situation on economic as well as social fronts, there is a general feeling of drift with the government. The religious leaders continue to call the shots. The inability of the government to meet people’s aspirations is leading to a surge in political bickering and a situation of adrift. The Pakistani establishment out of favour for over a decade immediately stepped in to take control of the situation with COAS, Gen Bajwaanointing himself as de facto leader through a flawed constitutional process through a pliably anointed Prime Minister. He will continue to do so for the next three years. The signing of Afghan Peace Agreement on 29 February 2020 has again brought back Pakistan into the frontline and good books of USA. Pakistani Establishment, somewhat confident of its proxies being in control of the situation on the Afghan front have now diverted their attention to gain control of the situation on their eastern front by getting hold of the cadres of India specific terrorist outfits to be pushed into J&K. Global attention directed to fight the Corona pandemic provided Pakistan with an opportunity it was looking tore calibrate insurgency in J&K. It quickly set about re aligning the cadres of various outfits and retching up infiltration to once again refocus global attention to J&K. Post Pulwama there is a feeling amongst Pakistan’s establishment that it faced up to Indian challenge of an airstrike by putting up an adequate degree of response. Militarily that fits into a projection that sees the Army being in control of the situation and de facto governance. However, handling of the situation by Pakistan government after India annulled Article 370 that granted special status to J&K convinced it that the Pakistan government led by Imran Khan was unable to project its viewpoint across the world and it would need to recalibrate efforts by taking charge of the situation. The Pakistan Army has therefore set on the path to escalate the situation in J&K and simultaneously launch an offensive to project J&K as flashpoint through public diplomacy and propaganda as it feels that three fourth battle is of “narrative” to be launched through media, foreign-based support groups, NGOs, Human Rights groups, think tanks and highlight adverse comments by Indian writers on the situation in J&K. It is also motivated to launch legal initiatives by filing cases in courts in the US and western countries, where such cases can receive global attention. The increased violence in J&K, therefore, needs to be seen in the backdrop of Pakistan Establishments “narrative” to build up opinion against India. Public opinion, unfortunately, sways very fast as any escalation in violence is viewed adversely inviting global attention. It matters little that the overall situation remains not only well in control of Indian security forces but has seen a tremendous improvement in comparable terms. India to tackle the current escalation would need to address the domestic issues in J&K. On international front it should continue to keep up the pressure on Pakistan through diplomatic means and draw global attention to Pakistan being a principal proponent of terrorism as a state policy. On the economic front, the pressure to blacklist it through FATF should continue. Militarily India would need to escalate costs for Pakistan to force it to desist from its game plan and return to a path of peaceful coexistence.