Why Doklam standoff is not good for Chinese President Xi Jinping ahead of BRICS Summit, CPC Congress
Most of the border trespasses or infringements by troops occur due to overenthusiastic local commanders, who just go overboard. The senior poeple or the decision makers in the government come into the picture a little later and take a stand with certain objectives in mind. But, Doklam seems to be a different case .
As reports from the ground suggest, Doklam standoff began after Chinese troops pulled down a couple of watchtowers and followed it up by destroying two bunkers built by the Indian Army for logistic support for patrolling in the region. Chinese troops were in the region to construct a highway.
The Doklam move by the People's Liberation Army of China has come in accordance with the broad Chinese policy towards border relations with India. Chinese policy has had three contours:
To strengthen its infrastructure by building roads, bridges and other permanent structures in the region where China is in stronger position
To further 'salami slicing' in areas where both Indian and Chinese troops jostle for dominance and patrol at different times
To needle India from time to time to test water where Chinese are in weaker position
Doklam has elements of both second and third contours of border policy. On ground, Indian forces occupy the edge of the hills and hence are in stronger position but this region is patrolled by the troops of both the sides. Indian troops have been patrolling the site of standoff for decades while Chinese do come and go occasionally.
Now that the Doklam standoff is in its third month, Chinese objectives seem to have fallen in disarray. The Doklam standoff is most likely to damage the standing of Chinese President Xi Jinping both domestically and internationally. China cannot pull back its troops without losing its face and staying there is posing problems to Beijing and Xi Jinping.
BRICS UNDER DOKLAM SHADOW
The ninth BRICS Summit is slated for September 3-5 and will be held at Xiamen in China. This year's theme of the BRICS Summit is "Stronger Partnership for a Brighter Future" but Doklam standoff has put a question mark on "Partnership".
Responding to a question last, the Ministry of External Affairs said that Prime Minister Narendra Modi's participation was not yet certain. MEA spokesperson Ravish Kumar said, "At this stage I can't confirm about PM Modi going to China. I will let you know if there are any further developments in this regard."
If PM Modi does not take part in the BRICS Summit in the wake of Doklam standoff, it will be a second major snub to Xi Jinping after his One Belt On Road initiative. Modi staying from BRICS would also mean a 'flop' Summit that Xi Jinping can hardly afford at a time when it is pushing hard to emerge as the strongest economic superpower in the world especially when US President Donald Trump is being viewed as 'unpredictable' in his policies.
Since its first summit in 2009, BRICS has been the alternative economic voice of the world in contrast to the one dominated by the US and European Union.
China and India have worked together at several other platforms including the World Economic Forum, the World Trade Organisation as BRICS partners to prevent the western bloc from having its say on key issues including agriculture and climate change. It will not augur well for Xi Jinping if Xiamen BRICS Summit fails after a rather successful Goa edition last year in India.
19TH CONGRESS OF CPC
The Communist Party of China will be holding its 19th Congress later this year. It is expected to be held in two months after the BRICS Summit. Dates are not yet final but Xi Jinping will surely try to consolidate his position in the Congress, which will see a new make-up of the top leadership.
The polit buro and polit buro standing committee will get a new look. On account of age, only Xi Jinping and Chinese Premier Le Kiqiang will enter the new polit buro of the CPC. Speculations are rife that Xi Jinping has plans to fill the posts in the polit buro standing committee with his own proteges. But, with Doklam not going China's way, Xi Jinping may find some opposition in the Congress.
DIPLOMATIC DISTRESS OVER DOKLAM
China has not got much support from the international community over Doklam. Ever since, the standoff over Doklam began, China insisted that India should withdraw before any talks could be held. After two months, none of the countries has come in its support. Not even Pakistan has said it openly.
On the other hand, the US, the UK and Japan have backed India's stand one way or the other. While the US and the UK said that India and China should resolve the standoff bilaterally through dialogue, Japan went further to accuse China of being provocative saying that "no one should try to change the status quo" what the PLA tried to do by attempting to build a highway in the disputed region.
China's 'salami slicing' policy may see India deepening its strategic ties with the US and Japan further. Chinese expansionist policy is being challenged in the east by the US-Vietnam-Japan alliance. India may work more closely with the already existing alliance making it more difficult for Xi Jinping in explaining Doklam standoff to his own partymen.
While Doklam standoff continued, India, the US and Japan held annual Malabar Naval Exercise. Australia has been keen on joining the naval exercise for some time. India had in the past cited some technical issue. But, Following Doklam, India may walk a few extra miles to let Australia join the Malabar exercise. China is the biggest trading partner of Australia. If Australia joins the Malabar exercise, which China sees as directed against it, Xi Jinping may actually see an ally drifting a bit.
One of the objectives of Doklam standoff appears to be winning away Bhutan from India. But, after India stood its ground firm, this Chinese objective does not seem to be fulfilled this time around. This will come as another failure of Xi Jinping. Bhutan continues to be the only Chinese neighbour having no diplomatic relation with it.
Doklam standoff is turning out to be second successive loss of face for Xi Jinping with regard to his India policy after New Delhi snubbed China over One Belt One Road initiative. This follows a very pompous visit by Xi Jinping to India in 2014 and a successful Goa BRICS Summit last year.
XI JINPING'S THRID TERM AMBITION
It is being widely speculated that Xi Jinping may push for a tradition-breaking third term as the President of China. No Chinese President after Mao Zedong has enjoyed such a long term in office. But, Xi Jinping has been dropping hints about his ambitious plan.
In 2016, Xi Jinping got his position elevated to the "core leader". This year, Xi Jinping became the first Chinese leader after Mao to be publicly addressed by the PLA forces as the "Chairman". But, with Doklam mishandling, Xi Jinping may find it difficult to explain his stand in the Congress. Xi Jinping is said to be keen to get the approval of the Congress for another term in 2022. The CPC Congress is held every five years.
Despite high-octane cries for war and rhetoric of 1962, a full-fledged war over Doklam is not worth for China. And, Xi Jinping cannot expect India to back off over short war. Chinese army cannot have its say at Doklam because Indian troops are better positioned strategically.
To make India reconsider its stand over Doklam, China will have to escalate it over other sectors of boundary or use air force. Both will send wrong signals to the world and bring two nuclear powers in direct conflict. This may also work against Chinese emphasis on economic geo-strategy. Doklam standoff has left Xi Jinping in, what could be called, a constipated situation.
